“Seek Higher Ground Now”: A Near Dam Failure In New Mexico Was Just The Warm-Up For A Record El Niño

A flood-control dam in southern New Mexico came close enough to failing Tuesday that the National Weather Service ordered people downstream to get out of the way.

Forecasters issued a flash flood emergency for McLeod Dam near Garfield in Doña Ana County, after dam operators and county officials reported that failure was imminent:

“This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”

The county ordered evacuations for Hatch, Garfield, Salem, Rincon and Placitas. AccuWeather reported floodwaters pouring over the top of a 20-foot earthen dam in Garfield and breaching its wall. The county described something smaller: at 8:30 p.m., spokesperson Ariana Parra told the Albuquerque Journal that crews had mitigated “a very small piping failure,” that no water was exiting the dam, and that pumps were on the way to relieve pressure.

Orders for four of the five communities were lifted late Tuesday. Rincon remained evacuated as of late Tuesday because of standing floodwater.

Watch: KOAT footage of flooding near McLeod Dam in Garfield.

The dam’s record was already bad before the rain. KRWG, citing the National Inventory of Dams, reported that McLeod’s last inspection, in 2023, rated it “poor,” classified it high-hazard, and found no emergency action plan in place.

The high-hazard label rates what a failure would cost, including lives. The “poor” rating is the one that speaks to the structure itself. None of the county’s public statements this week addressed what has been repaired, re-inspected or planned since 2023.

🚨DAM FAILURE 🚨
The McLeod Dam near Garfield, New Mexico, is facing potential failure after being overtopped. Immediate evacuations are underway, while a #FlashFloodEmergency remains in effect north of Las Cruces. More rain is expected through late week, adding to the ongoing… pic.twitter.com/oEB8Si9P2q

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) September 29, 2026

El Niño Is Already Feeding The Storms

The water that pushed McLeod to the edge came from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, which Fox Weather ranks as the second-most intense Eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Hurricane Rachel, now strengthening off Mexico, is the basin’s 20th named storm and 10th hurricane of the season, and forecasters are crediting a strengthening El Niño with supercharging the Pacific. The same pattern had left the Atlantic with its least active start since 1941 as of early September.

The winter phase, when El Niño does most of its work on the southern US, hasn’t started. In its September update, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter at more than 90%, with a 75% chance the key Niño-3.4 temperature anomaly tops +2.5°C in October-December. It already hit +1.8°C in August. The WMO’s projection would make this the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950, as we detailed.

For New Mexico, that typically means a wetter, cooler winter. Forecasters told the Journal in June that the biggest precipitation increases are expected in the southern part of the state, which includes the Hatch Valley. Next door, California isn’t waiting: Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency Sept. 21 to prepare for heavy rain, debris flows and flooding.

CPC cautions that impacts from an event this size are more likely but not guaranteed. The dam that came within hours of failing Tuesday will face that winter carrying a 2023 “poor” rating, with no public account yet of what has been fixed.