“We Can’t Do Any Planning”; Dallas Fed Manufacturers Uniformly Negative

As we await a maelstrom of Level 1 macro data this week, you could be forgiven glancing wistfully at this morning’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey’s modest headline beat (small decline MoM) and thinking “meh.”

That would be a mistake…

Production is soaring (yay!!) and is forecast to remain strong…

Employment is up (yay)… BUT is expected to plunge…

And more worryingly, Prices Paid and expected Prices Received are accelerating  again…

Ok so with all that in mind, here are the (uniformly negative) responses from the surveyed group of manufacturers. They don’t sound like a bunch of business owners expecting new orders and production to improve…

• Tariffs and fuel prices are affecting incoming and outgoing products/costs. Customers have hit the limit on what they can pay. We are getting pushback and cancellations (Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing

• Fuel costs (diesel, in particular) are adversely impacting our bottom line and that of our customers. We’d welcome a quicker resolution to the conflict with Iran as we believe that could potentially provide more favorable outcomes, improved margins and stability in interest rates. Insurance rates continue to increase in cost with a decrease in coverage. Overall, however, we continue to expand operations with an ever-increasing backlog that will provide a record year of revenue and net income for our enterprise in 2026 (Machinery manufacturing)

• We are now facing increased difficulty obtaining raw materials domestically. Items that were readily available now take long lead times or are not available in the same specifications we have historically purchased (Miscellaneous manufacturing)

• The price of diesel fuel is hurting our gross margin. We are unable to pass this through to our customers. We are bidding new jobs using $6.00 [per gallon] for diesel cost (Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing)

• Broadly speaking, very little to no manufacturing growth exists as pricing is being driven down by Asian and Chinese suppliers. AI and heavy transportation are growing. Other sectors are weak (Plastics and rubber products manufacturing)

• Our business has been able to maintain its volume, primarily because several competitors have experienced significant difficulties, including the largest producer in our industry announcing the closure of two plants, one of which is relatively close to us in Louisiana. Our primary concern going forward is the outcome of the U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations. There are significant flows of foreign aluminum into Mexico, including from countries with substantial non-market production and subsidization including Russia and China at prices far below U.S. prices. We are concerned that reduction in tariffs on Mexican aluminum products will give these non-market economies a significantly advantaged conduit into our domestic markets. Rules of Origin policies sound good in theory but experience shows that this relies on the honesty of those doing the reporting. PROSECs (Program for Sectoral Promotion) are also problematic in giving Mexican companies the ability to use these same foreign-supplied raw materials in downstream products. For U.S. aluminum producers, the issue isn’t simply the tariff rate applied to Mexico. It is making sure that Mexico does not become a lower-tariff pathway for heavily subsidized aluminum produced in Russia, China or elsewhere in Asia to reach the U.S. market. (Primary metal manufacturing)=

• Incoming orders have really slowed down, and now that we are finishing up on some large projects that have kept us very busy since mid-spring, things are slowing down. We have to believe it’s due to the uncertainty around the chaos out of Washington, D.C. and lack of a clear path forward. Add to this the higher cost of living and rising fuel costs, especially for diesel that affects all modes of shipping, it seems to be a logical reason for slower levels of activity amongst our customers (Printing and related support activities)

• High interest and energy costs are a double hit. We can’t do any planning (Transportation equipment manufacturing)

Forgive rus our ignorance here but how the fuck is a sentiment index higher pretty much across the board and yet respondents are literally uniformly negative?

We guess that’s why the smarty pants PhDs get paid the big bucks…