China Pledges Major US Coal Purchases But Falls Short On Rare Earth Crisis Resolution

Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou poured cold water on the Trump-Xi state visit this past week, calling it “more signaling, less substance.”

Shortages of rare earths and critical materials in the West, caused by China’s weaponization of its export channels in what can only be viewed as resource nationalism, have yet to be resolved.

But there was some good news, though not on the critical materials front: Bloomberg reported early Saturday that China is planning to purchase 20 million metric tons of US coal over two years.

Beijing committed to importing at least 10 million metric tons in 2027 and another 10 million in 2028. The two countries will also pursue preferential tariffs covering $30 billion of non-sensitive goods from both economies under an agreement reached through the US-China Board of Trade.

Meanwhile, the White House said US and Chinese trade negotiators would continue addressing US concerns over shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals. The statement described further work on those bottlenecks, rather than a resolution.

Stifel critical materials analyst Brock Cannon laid out last week that investors want to begin “Owning the Bottlenecks” – in other words, ex-China producing mines that can deliver critical material supplies to the West today. 

The bad news: no resolution to supplies of rare earths and critical materials being choked by Beijing. The good news, however, is that China is willing to buy US coal.

But if Phase 1 of the trade deal during Trump’s first term is any indication, China usually doesn’t abide by its agreements. US farmers found that out the hard way when China began boosting agricultural imports from South America.