Traders Have Modest Hopes For A Trump-Xi AI Deal

While we will provide a more detailed preview of the Trump/Xi summit in a subsequent post, there are signs that President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, may emerge from their upcoming summit with an agreement about the artificial-intelligence industry, an increasingly prominent flash point between the world’s two biggest economies. But, as Bloomberg’s Jacob Gu  notes, fund managers say it’s unlikely to be significant enough to provide a sustainable boost to AI-related stocks.

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, after hours of talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York, said the two sides agreed to create what he called a “US-China AI dialogue” about the technology’s benefits and threats.

The following day, Liao Min, the Chinese Vice Finance Minister, and a key member of the delegation, told Bloomberg that staff from the two countries were working together toward the details of a potential agreement on AI, investment and trade.

Bessent will present Trump with an AI agreement to review before his meeting with Xi, Fox Business reported.

The importance of AI at the US-China talks is being highlighted by the expected presence of Sam Altman and other industry executives at Trump’s state dinner for Xi to be held later this week, and while US tech execs will be present (again),  Xi is unlikely to bring a delegation of corporate executives when he meets Trump,, the WSJ reported.

But Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said investors shouldn’t expect it to have much immediate impact on the business between the two countries. “Given past experiences, our sense is that Trump’s visit to China earlier this year with a heavyweight technology entourage did not ultimately translate into meaningful progress on technology or hardware restrictions,” he said.

“From our side, this still looks more symbolic than substantive, and investors should continue positioning for a prolonged AI race rather than an imminent policy breakthrough,” Tan added.

Ashwin Binwani, founder of private investment firm Alpha Binwani Capital, was similarly cautious, since Bessent highlighted safety issues rather than an easing of US export controls.

“A pop on that news is a fade candidate, not a trend to chase,” he said. “Diversify away from pure semiconductor concentration into the hyperscaler capex story, which has its own momentum independent of the summit.”

He said traders have been burned previously when policy discussions failed to result in more concrete steps like licensing or purchase deals. That’s not to say there’d be no potential stock-market impact: He said “a modestly constructive readout” could fuel a rebound in the most heavily shorted Hong Kong stocks as investors close out positions.