FOMC Minutes Tilt Hawkish: ‘Inflation Risks Skewed To The Upside’ Due To AI

While today’s market moves (post-Bessent’s OpTwist bailout) are changing things rapidly, since the last FOMC meeting, on July 19th, where Warsh held rates (hawkishly) unchanged (in the biggest surprise to market expectations in decades) amid multiple dissents, gold, bitcoin, and oil have outperformed, the dollar and bonds have lagged, with stocks solidly green in the middle…

And rate-hike expectations have plunged, erasing the hawkish shift since Warsh’s first Fed meeting (thanks mostly to weak macro since the meeting)…

With Fed-watchers up in arms about him not giving the book away (ending forward guidance), they are hoping for some signs on the tea-leaves today of The Fed’s reaction function (don’t hold your breath) or what they are watching (still don’t hold your breath).

Market participants expected the Minutes to show that hawkish sentiment on the committee was broad-based, despite the decision to hold rates steady. That could re-energize market bets on an imminent rate hike, bets that have subsided since July’s weak jobs and retail-sales data and modest CPI inflation.

However, bear in mind that the FOMC minutes are backward-looking, of course, but the editorial process – which requires sign-off from top officials – allows the Fed to selectively underscore certain messages. Given the sharp upward movement in long-term bond yields recently (before today) and concerns about Fed credibility, many are expecting officials likely to give the minutes a hawkish edit.

So what do Warsh and his new pals at The Eccles Building want us to know?

As expected, a hawkish tilt to the Minutes:

It was all about inflation:

• *FED: MANY SAID HIKE LIKELY NEEDED IF INFLATION DIDN’T DECLINE

• *FED: PARTICIPANTS JUDGED INFLATION RISKS WERE SKEWED TO UPSIDE

• *FED: SEVERAL SAW AI INVESTMENT HAVING BROADER EFFECT ON PRICES

• *FED: SEVERAL SAID TARIFF PASS-THROUGH WAS NOW LARGELY COMPLETE

As we already knew: Most participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall

“Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” the minutes said.

• Most participants at Fed’s July 28-29 meeting supported keeping interest rates unchanged, but several favored an increase

• Various participants said tighter financial conditions over intermeeting period reflected strong economic growth and expectations for Fed to adopt more restrictive stance before long

• A few of the participants who favored raising rates at the meeting judged doing so would likely help forestall need for further hikes

Fewer meetings possible:

• Chairman Warsh noted six scheduled meetings per year, held roughly every two months, would allow more information to accumulate between meetings

• Almost all FOMC members agreed it was appropriate to retain policy statement affirming FOMC ‘will deliver price stability’

• No decisions were made on number of meetings and Warsh indicated no change to the 2026 schedule

Outlook and Inflation

• Fed staff economic outlook showed inflation outlook was similar to one prepared for June meeting but economic outlook was ‘a touch weaker’

• Several participants noted price increases over last year were broad based, spanning various categories of goods and services

Balance Sheet

• A couple of participants noted ample-reserves regime had helped maintain orderly market functioning during brief payments outage during intermeeting period.

Interestingly, in line with his lack of forward guidance (and the potential for fewer meetings), the Minutes appeared more sparse of actionable detail than usual.

Read the full Minutes here.