Key Midterm Election Races to Watch for the Air Force and Space Force

Dozens of former Airmen are running for Congress in the 2026 midterms, but as Election Day arrives Nov. 3, the election’s impact on the Air Force and Space Force figures to resonate beyond just the number of former service members on Capitol Hill.

In the House of Representatives, Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) is locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor. Polls show the two candidates separated by just a few points, and election handicappers rate the race as a toss-up.

Wittman is vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee and has an outsized influence on Air Force policy as chair of the tactical air and land forces subcommittee. Earlier this year, as part of the committee’s work on the 2027 defense policy bill, he pushed to authorize the Pentagon to make multiyear procurement deals for both the F-35 and F-15EX fighters and he has supported continued procurement of the E-7 Wedgetail early warning and battle management aircraft.

If Wittman prevails, he would be a key to succeed Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) as HASC chair, if the Republicans maintain their majority, or to become the ranking member if the Democrats gain the majority. Rogers is term-limited from retaining the chair by Republican conference rules, but he has said he would seek a waiver to hold onto his leadership position. Other contenders include Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) and Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.).

But if Wittman loses and the Democrats win control of the House, current ranking Democrat Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) would likely return to the chair, a position he held when the Democrats last held the majority.

Other competitive races that could affect HASC members:

Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio), who chaired the tactical air and land forces subcommittee prior to Wittman and represents Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, is running against an Air Force vet, former Maj. Kristina Knickerbocker. Turner is slightly favored, but a recent poll indicated the race appeared to be tightening.
Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.), whose district includes the U.S. Air Force Academy, Peterson Space Force Base, and Schriever Space Force Base, is running against Jessica Killin, a U.S. Army veteran. Polls show an extremely close race, which experts recently rated a “toss-up.”
Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), just the the fourth U.S. Air Force Academy graduate ever elected to Congress and a former captain, is facing retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout in the most expensive House race in the country. Polls are all over the map on this one. The winner will represent Seymour-Johnson Air Force Base, the heart of the Air Force’s F-15 training enterprise.

While the HASC handles policy and oversight, the House Appropriations Committee and its defense subcommittee is responsible for the funding that goes to the Air Force, Space Force, and the Pentagon. And the chair of that defense subcommittee is locked in an unusual election battle. As a result of redistricting in California, Rep. Ken Calvert is running against another Republican, Rep. Young Kim. While the seat is guaranteed to stay red, a Calvert loss would shake up the defense appropriations subcommittee.

Other members of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee in competitive races include Reps. David Valadao (D-Calif.), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), and Henry Cuellar (D-Texas).

In the Senate

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is locked in an extremely close race with challenger Troy Jackson. Collins is also a member of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, which wields enormous influence over Pentagon funding.

Also on the defense subcommittee is Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), who is in a closer-than-expected race with challenger Scott Colom. Hyde-Smith is favored, but the race is closely watched.

Meanwhile, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), current chair of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, is retiring. It is unclear who might replace him on that panel if Republicans hold the Senate, but if Democrats flip the chamber, Sen. Christopher Coons (D-Del.) will likely become chair.

The Senate Armed Services Committee also faces turnover, with more than a fifth of the panel’s 27 members either not running for reelection or facing a significant challenge. Four members of the SASC are not running: Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.). Two more are in competitive races: Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Ashley Moody (R-Fla.)

Thinking Local

Districts that represent represent communities surrounding military installations are also in play. Such legislators often become involved in funnelling resources to bases, whether to fund new construction, units, or equipment, including aircraft.

For the Air Force and Space Force, Senate battlegrounds Alaska, Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida all include major bases. Alaska in particular has key Space Force radars and Air Force fifth-generation fighters, Texas has the services’ Basic Military Training and Air Education and Training Command, and Florida includes the rapidly expanding eastern range for space launch and major Air Force bases for testing, F-35s, tankers, and special operations.

On a more granular level, other bases in competitive House districts include:

MacDill Air Force Base, Fla.: Incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor (D) is in a tight content with Mike Beltran (R).
Joint Base Lindsey Graham, S.C.: The seat is open with the departure of Rep. Nancy Mace, and retired Navy Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore (D) is going up against Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R).
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz.: Incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) is considered a slight underdog to JoAnna Mendoza.
Joint Base San Antonio-Raldolph, Texas: as part of redistricting, JBSA-Randolph is now in a district with an open seat. Air Force vet Carlos De La Cruz is the Republican nominee.