Crude Plummets As Trump Dangles Iran Sanctions Relief In Surprise Nuclear Deal Hint

Summary

• Trump signals Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices.

• US-Iran talks may resume, but only indirectly, this week; however Tehran remains skeptical after Trump rejected its ceasefire proposal.

• Iran announced targeting 19 vessels over a 48 hour period this weekend and is threatening to escalate further.

• Oil prices fall: Brent below $100 and WTI below $95 as markets price in potential diplomacy.

• Iran’s economy feels the pressure, with the rial hitting a record low near 2.3 million per dollar.

*  *  *

Oil Tumbles on the Unexpected: Trump Signals Sanctions Relief (…TACO Monday)

Al Jazeera is reporting that President Trump is signaling he’d be open to providing Iran with sanctions relief in return for nuclear concessions – though it remains that Tehran has throughout the war insisted that a ceasefire deal must be achieved first, before the nuclear file is dealt with.

US official says US President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, reports Al Jazeera

And…

CNN and Axios also run US offiicial comments (echoing Al Jazeera) that US President Trump is willing to grant Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for real progress on the nuclear issue.

As stocks jump, crude big plummet…

Note via Newsquawk: Oil sees downside, with slight Dollar pressure, while Treasuries, stocks, and spot gold see upside amid reports that Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear file. Meanwhile…

IRAN OFFICIALS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT DEAL WITH US BEFORE MIDTERMS

The Iranian response is what’s going to matter here. They will likely see in this another ploy to merely talk down oil prices, and have already repeatedly said they ‘don’t trust’ Trump. It was only on Friday night into Saturday that Trump outright rejected Iran’s 7-day ceasefire pitch – with not even so much as an effort to sit down and talk details. But apparently that could happen this week on an indirect basis, via the typical Gulf mediators.

Ayatollah New Threat

After a weekend which saw President Trump reject an Iranian proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and roadmap to peace, and Tehran in turn targeting 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the two sides once again have their fingers on the trigger.

Iran has said while it remains open to diplomacy, it is ‘fully prepared’ to resume the full-scale war with Washington, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday. On Monday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – who still hasn’t been seen since the war’s start and after his father’s assassination – has proclaimed his military has driven the ‘enemy’ from waters off southern Iran to the Arabian Sea.

“Having suffered painful blows from our valiant combatants and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz, they [the enemy] dare not venture beyond the Arabian Sea,” Khamenei said in a new message. He warned that war could soon come to the Arabian Sea as well.

His words were issued on the annual remembrance of the Iran-Iraq War, as well as the anniversary of Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024.

“Whenever they have risked doing so they have only inflicted harm upon themselves, and the time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence,” Khamenei’s message added. This marks an extension of threats from Iranian security officials last week which warned that war is coming to the Indian Ocean more broadly.

However, the reality also is that oil exports from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman have been climbing over the past week. But renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces are trying to hinder this uptick in transit, is looking more and more likely.

This as diplomacy is obviously stalled. Bloomberg observes, “Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal US President Donald Trump has rejected.” And, “In futures, oil rose as Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal that US President Donald Trump has rejected.”

Return to ‘Talks’ Narrative

Like clockwork, anonymous diplomatic officials are once again in pre-market Monday morning hours pushing a “talks” narrative. According to more latest from Bloomberg:

Mediators expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, according to sources. Talks to focus on amended version of 7-day proposal Iran presented on UNGA sidelines.

Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President also supporting talks.

And the Wall Street Journal has a parallel Monday morning story: “Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war,” the publication says. On the headlines:

• Brent Dec fell from USD 100.70/bbl to around USD 99.60/bbl.
• WTI Nov dipped from USD 96/bbl to USD 94.90/bbl.

Trump in new comments to Axios:

“I expect more talks with Iran (this week),” Trump told Axios in a phone interview. “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”

Araghchi apparently stayed in New York through the weekend following his attendance of the UN General Assembly, with President Pesheshkian having departed back to Iran.

Ready for “apocalyptic war” if it comes to that…

🔸New: Iran’s FM Araghchi:

“President Pezeshkian and I did not come to New York to sell a war. We came to forge peace.

Iran nonetheless remains steadfast in the face of any aggression—even if it comes to an apocalyptic war. At the same time, we are ready for real diplomacy.” https://t.co/V1VtKDuk4L

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 27, 2026

Meanwhile the US economic war is continuing to bite, with Iran’s currency has hitting another historic low against the US dollar, exacerbated by severe inflation and the Trump/Bessent ‘Economic D-Day’ and ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ campaigns which seek to strangle the country. Financial trackers note that the free market exchange rate has escalated to 2.3 million rials per US dollar. 

Weekend & Overnight Developments

via Newsquawk

• US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
• US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
• US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
• US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
• Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
• IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
• Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
• Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
• Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
• Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.