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Bitcoin (BTC) sat at $78,000, down -0.2% on the day, as a packed week of US labor and activity data could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision.
On Kalshi, traders priced a close split for the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting: 53% odds of a 25-basis-point increase and 47% odds of no change.
Five major reports are due before the Fed meets, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release expected to be the most closely watched. The week’s central question is whether labor-market data show enough cooling to make a rate increase harder to justify or enough strength to lift expectations for a hike.
BTC USD is up nearly +2% over the past week, as the leading digital asset surged from $68,000 to over $81,000. Daily trading volume for Bitcoin currently sits at $66Bn.
The December Fed contract prices an 88.7% chance of a HIKE.
0% chance of a cut. Most are still positioned like easing is coming.
Bitcoin bitcoin:native held its recovery candle through a week where the market repriced toward tightening.
That’s the part worth thinking about. pic.twitter.com/WSMX2tFUvJ
— Crypto Yield Pro (@CryptoYieldPro) August 31, 2026
How Jobs Data Can Move Bitcoin
Stronger-than-expected employment figures could raise the odds of a rate hike. CoinGabbar says a hike raises borrowing costs and often pulls money away from risk assets, including Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
By contrast, soft hiring, weaker job openings or a rising unemployment rate could support expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady. CoinGabbar says a hold, or signs of a cooling labor market, tends to support Bitcoin and crypto prices.
The response is not predetermined. Bitcoin’s reaction will depend on how new labor data compare with market expectations and how traders adjust their views on the September decision.
The Reports and Fed Signals in Focus
The calendar is dense. Tuesday brings ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings, two indicators of factory health and labor demand. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report offers an early read on hiring before the government’s employment figures, while Thursday’s ISM Services PMI is also scheduled.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls and unemployment report is the headline event. July’s payrolls print was weak, and unemployment stood near 4.1%, according to CoinGabbar. A soft August report would support a hold, while a strong result would put a September rate increase back on the table.
The Fed has held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% since Chair Kevin Warsh took office in May. Analysts claimed that Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks reflected concern about underlying inflation trends, helping focus attention on the incoming labor data. The next scheduled decision is set for September 15–16, according to the Fed’s meeting calendar.
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What the Market Snapshot Says About Positioning
Across crypto markets, total capitalization stood at $2.68 trillion, down -1%, while trading volume reached $642.54Bn, up 102.51%, according to CoinGecko data.
Ethereum traded at $2,440, down -0.2%, and XRP was at $1.36, down -2%. The Altcoin Season Index stood at 24, which is characterized as Bitcoin season. ETF flows were negative $151.70M, while total liquidations reached $391.92M, including $276.74M in long liquidations and $115.17M in short liquidations.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 62, in Greed territory. The reading can be interpreted as an increase in volume and open interest, a sign that traders were positioning ahead of the jobs data rather than reacting after its release.
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Possible Bitcoin Responses to the Jobs Data
Weaker jobs data or a rise in unemployment could reduce expectations for a September rate increase and support a hold. Under that outcome, CoinGabbar’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin and the wider crypto market could find support from expectations of easier policy conditions.
Mixed reports could leave the market closely divided between a hold and a 25-basis-point increase, keeping attention on further economic data and Fed communications before the September meeting.
A strong payrolls report or firmer labor indicators could increase rate-hike expectations. If a hike becomes more likely, the higher borrowing costs associated with tighter policy could add pressure to Bitcoin and other risk assets, according to CoinGabbar.
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