Trump-Endorsed Nationalist Narrowly Wins Polish Presidential Election

In Poland’s extraordinarily tight and closely-watched presidential run-off election, a staunch nationalist conservative on Sunday defeated a pro-EU liberal in an outcome that promises economic and geopolitical implications. With 100% of the precincts reporting, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki had 50.9% of the votes, compared to 49.1% for leftist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who prematurely declared victory on Sunday evening after the first exit polls showed him at 50.3%. 

Among the key issues in the election were immigration, abortion, support for Ukraine, and Polish integration with the rest of Europe. When he takes office on August 6, Nawrocki — a former boxer who leads the Institute for National Remembrance — will succeed term-limited President Andrzej Duda. Like Nawrocki, Duda is associated with the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Before the final tally, Nawrocki was optimistic, saying “I believe we will all wake up tomorrow morning with President Nawrocki putting the broken Poland back together.” He also quoted the Bible, saying God would “heal the land” of good people who “turn away from wicked ways.“

Voicing Poland-first sentiments, Nawrocki previously said:

“We cannot afford actions that harm our economy, agriculture, people’s wallets or the functioning of our social welfare systems. All decisions regarding the future of our good economic and political cooperation, including with Ukraine, will be based solely on the interests of Poland and Poles.”

He has also warned against Ukrainian accession to NATO anytime soon, saying “It would be dangerous for Ukraine to be allowed into NATO as it would mean that the whole of the alliance would straight away be in a war with Russia.” He also said “The discussion about Ukraine’s entry to NATO is pointless…[Given its corruption], the Ukrainian state is not ready for many processes.” However, he’s also said, “we will continue, when I become president, to support Ukraine in the face of the Russian Federation’s threat, which is also hostile to us. That is self-evident.” 

He’s also hammered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: 

“The Ukrainian president behaves in an indecent manner toward his allies, including Poland. He claimed that Ukraine was left alone at the start of the war, which shows he failed to recognise the significant efforts of the Polish people and the Polish president”

President Trump endorsed Nawrocki, welcoming him to the White House in May and dispatching Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to a May 27 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meeting in Warsaw where she implored Poles to put Nawrocki in office: “I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol and listen — he needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me?” Noem also trashed Trzaskowski as “an absolute train wreck of a leader.” 

Heading into the runoff, the Polish stock market had rocketed ahead by 27% over the year to date, and 61% in dollar terms since the last parliamentary election, while government bonds returned 28%. Many observers expected a Nawrocki win to be a negative for the country’s markets. “It’s possible that the more NATO-skeptic Nawrocki may position Poland in a less favorable position when the time comes to rebuild Ukraine – a theme that has attracted investors to the Warsaw bourse of late,” noted Dow Jones’ Jamie Chisholm last week. Polish equities are trading at an average 9.7 PE ratio relative to estimated earnings for the coming 12 months, compared to 14.7 for the Euro STOXX 50. 

Political power in Poland is concentrated in the parliament and the prime minister, but, critically, presidents have the power to veto legislation and nominate the leader of the central bank. Nawrocki campaigned on the need for a check on what he called Tusk’s political “monopoly” over national policy. Duda has thwarted Tusk’s effort to fulfill campaign promises to loosen abortion restrictions and allow civil partnerships for homosexual couples. 

As the race headed down the home stretch, several members of the US House of Representatives sent a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen alleging possible foreign interference in the election, in the form of illegal spending on ads by an Austrian company with ties to the US Democratic Party, and by an NGO that’s received money from George Soros-funded organizations. The letter also demanded answers about liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government’s “monthslong refusal to release tens of millions of dollars in public campaign funding that PiS is legally entitled to receive.”

Turnout Polish presidents are elected to five-year terms, and they can only be re-elected once. The next major milestone in the country will come with 2027’s parliamentary elections. Nawrocki’s victory comes amid a string of elections across Europe pitting EU- and NATO-catering leftists against conservative nationalists. In mid-May, nationalist Romanian presidential candidate George Simion lost to centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, following an election saga that saw the leading nationalist candidate banned from running and arrested. Simion endorsed Poland’s Nawrocki, as did nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Upcoming contests of note include Norway’s parliamentary elections on Sept. 8, Italy’s regional elections on Sept. 21-22, and Moldova’s parliamentary races on Sept. 28.