Biden ‘Bombs’ & Bad-Flation Send Bond Yields & Black Gold Higher, Stocks Pause Into Payrolls

Did Biden “mis-speak” yet again when he said they were “discussing” bombing Iran oil facilities? For now, oil doesn’t think he’s senile and WTI is trading at one-month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that implies pump-prices are going higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Solid Services PMI headline data was besmirched by ugly surges in underlying inflation data… and that combined with the surge in oil prices prompted a sizable rise in bond yields on the day (yields up 6-8bps across the curve today)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and a notable drop in rate-cut expectations. 2024 is now a coin-flip between 2 and 3 more cuts (2025 remains at 4x25bps cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

The hawkish shift in STIRs has helped send the USD higher (amid geopol safe haven flows too)…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets drifted lower overnight with futures dumping at the European open. Some chaotic swings around the US cash open but once Europe was closed the selling pressure resumed with Small Caps the laggard and S&P/Nasdaq the least ugly horse in today’s glue factory…

Despite the NVDA CEO expounding on how “insane” the demand for the new Blackwell chips is, the question is will H2 2024 be a breakout or a range like 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Vol is priced for some serious action around tomorrow’s payrolls print…

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks are ignoring the risk for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds are back at one month highs and stocks fading a bit as the two asset-classes begin to re-converge into tomorrow’s jobs data…

Source: Bloomberg

This is worth paying attention to – BEs are surging higher on the heels of higher oil prices. This is NOT what Powell and his pals want to see…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, gold is holding on to its gains….

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was basically unchanged today, finding support at $60,000 after the last couple days collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, does this look like an economy that needed 50bps of rate-cuts and is priced for 75bps more bps this year?

US Macro Surprise data surged back into the positive today, to its highest in six months…

Source: Bloomberg

Presumably tomorrow’s payrolls print will answer all questions clearly and unambiguously.

Meanwhile, USA sovereign risk continues to push quietly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Is that the ultimate hedge for a Harris victory?