Conference Board Survey Signals Weakest Labor Market Since COVID Lockdowns

After 8 of the last 9 months seeing consumer confidence revised lower, July’s Conference Board data was revised significantly higher (from 100.3 to 101.9)…

Source: Bloomberg

And August’s headline print was considerably better than expected (103.3 vs 100.8 exp) with the expectations gauge adjusted significantly higher for July and higher still in August…

Source: Bloomberg

The Present Situation remains languishing near COVID lockdown lows, which is perhaps explained by the fact that the overall trend in the labor market indicator remains weaker…

Source: Bloomberg

…and purchase plans for homes, cars, and appliances all plunged.

Source: Bloomberg

But some good news is that inflation expectations tumbled back to pre-COVID levels…

Source: Bloomberg

This soft survey data supports The Fed’s dovish stance (if you look hard enough), but given the lack of buying interest, it seems the consumer is more than stretched.