Futures Rise Ahead Of Data Deluge Including Key Retail Sales Report

US equity futures are following European and most Asian stocks higher, with traders’ attention turning to today’s retail sales report (full preview here) which may support the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its September meeting. As of 7:45am, S&P futures are up 0.2%, higher for the fifth day in a row, as the burst of 13-F releases overnight helps to boost some individual names; Nasdaq futures also gain 0.1% led by tech with Mag7 and Semis leading pre-mkt though NVDA is lower to start the day. Bond yields are flat to up 1bps, and USD is flat. Commodities are bid across all 3 complexes though base metals are lagging and Silver over Gold. PPI/CPI data shaped the inflation story and now Retail Sales/Jobless Claims will do the same for the Growth story, while Walmart boosting its profit outlook will help ease recessionary fears. That said, the Fed may not reveal its hand until the Sep 6 NFP print.

Walmart jumped 7.8% in premarket trading after raising its sales and profit guidance for the full year, as the chain expects to draw shoppers searching for deals. Cisco Systems rose after the networking equipment maker’s results beat expectations. Nike rallied after Pershing Square Capital Management LP disclosed a new stake in the sportswear company.  Bavarian Nordic A/S, one of few companies with an approved mpox vaccine, soared 17% in Copenhagen after the World Health Organization declared a fast-spreading outbreak of the disease a global public health emergency. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Brinker International shares rise 1.0% after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the Chili’s owner to overweight from sector weight, seeing a compelling entry point for the stock following its post-results decline.
Cisco Systems shares rose 6.1% after the maker of computer networking equipment reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive revenue forecast. It also said it plans to cut more jobs. Analysts note strong results in a tough backdrop.
Dell Technologies rose as much 2.3% as JPMorgan added the computer maker’s stock to its analyst focus list, citing an “attractive entry point.”
Lumentum shares jump 16% after the optical and photonic products maker reported fourth-quarter earnings per share that came ahead of consensus estimates. Morgan Stanley highlighted the announcement of an 800G transceiver customer win as “encouraging.
Nike shares rose 4.2% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP disclosed it had a new position of about 3 million shares worth $229 million at the end of the second-quarter.
Robinhood Markets rises 2.5% after Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold in a mid-third quarter outlook note on North American brokers, asset managers and exchanges.
Spire Global falls 19% after the provider of space-based data analytics notified the SEC that its 10-Q filing for the quarter ended June 30 will be late.
Titan Machinery shares slump 28% after the owner of agricultural equipment stores cut its fiscal 2025 profit guidance, saying retail demand has softened further over the last several months.
Ulta Beauty shares climb 14% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it took a new stake in the cosmetics retailer, according to a 13F filing for the quarter ended June 30. Meanwhile, Sirius XM rose 14% as Buffett showed an increased stake in the company.

S&P 500 contracts were steady after the benchmark extended its winning streak to a fifth day Wednesday, buoyed by a benign consumer price index print. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.2%.

“The latest US inflation data supports our view of a gradual cooling of the US economy,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “This underlines our view that the Fed will start easing policy at its September meeting. That provides a positive backdrop for risk assets. It would also erode returns on cash, underlining our view that investors should brace for lower rates.”

In the UK, the economy maintained its muted rebound from last year’s recession, with GDP rising 0.6% in the second quarter after an 0.7% gain in the first three months. The figures are unlikely to shift the calculus of policymakers at the Bank of England, which had expected an even stronger expansion.

Norway’s central bank kept rates unchanged (as expected) for an eighth month and shed little light on when easing might begin, given risks to the inflation outlook from a weaker krone. The currency gained after the announcement.

Meanwhile, it will be another busy session for for traders tracking updates on the world’s biggest economy. Thursday brings readings on initial jobless claims and retail sales. Figures out Wednesday showed that US year-on-year core consumer prices in July rose at the slowest pace since 2021. Traders are fully pricing in one 25 basis-point cut by the Fed next month and 100 basis points of reductions through year-end.

European stocks rise for a third day, led by health care, insurance and technology names, while travel and leisure is falling the most. Here are the most notable movers:

Bavarian Nordic shares surge as much as 17% in Copenhagen to the highest since November 2022 after the World Health Organization declared a fast-spreading mpox outbreak in Africa a global health emergency. Bavarian Nordic is one of the few companies with an approved mpox vaccine.
Adyen shares rise as much as 8.5% after the payments firm reported estimate-beating revenue, defying a slowdown in consumer spending. Take rate — a closely watched metric that tracks the proportion Adyen charges merchants for processing each transaction — stabilized after a sharp drop in 1Q.
Admiral shares rise as much as 12% to hit their highest level since February 2022 after the insurer reported pretax profit ahead of expectations in the first half. The company cited strong performance from its UK Motor arm.
Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 4.5%, best performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care index on Thursday morning, after the Danish drugmaker released financial results. The increased investment in obesity programs is “welcome,” according to Jefferies analysts.
Holmen shares rise as much as 7.1%, the most since April 2023, after the Swedish paper and forestry group beat estimates in the second quarter and announced buyback plans. Jefferies analysts say the results are positive in the long-term, as the board and paper division offsets weaknesses in renewable energy.
Yubico shares surge as much as 24% to a record high, with DNB Markets describing the Swedish cybersecurity firm’s results as a “mic drop” quarter.
HelloFresh shares rise as much as 8.7% to the highest intraday since April. Bankhaus Metzler analysts upgrade the meal-kit maker to hold from sell, noting that strength in the first half makes the company’s full-year guidance more attainable. The stock is still down 52% YTD.
Orsted shares plunge as much as 9.3% to hit their lowest level since November after the offshore wind farm specialist reported a surprise net loss in the latest quarter, having slipped into the red after booking hefty impairments against multiple projects.
OSB Group shares plummet as much as 20%, the worst performance in the FTSE All-Share today, to hit their lowest level since April after the bank lowered its net interest margin outlook for the year. Analysts flagged the loan book is growing more slowly than hoped amid increased competition in lending.
Autostore slumps as much as 17%, the most on record, after order intake came in significantly below consensus in a second-quarter report which Morgan Stanley describes as “notably weak.” The Norwegian warehouse automation group says customers are acting cautiously due to a challenging economic backdrop and sustained high interest rates.

Earlier, in Asian trading Japan’s Topix index and China’s CSI 300 benchmark rose in a broadly positive reaction to data points in the two countries. Japan’s economy grew faster in the second quarter than analysts forecast. China, meanwhile, saw signs of stabilization that included slowing declines in home prices and better-than-expected retail sales.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is unchanged; the pound rises 0.1% against the dollar. The Norwegian krone has risen to the top of the G-10 FX leader board, adding 0.4% after a hawkish hold from the Norges Bank.

In rates, treasuries dip, with US 10-year yields rising 1bps to 3.84% while gilts underperformed after data showed the UK economy grew in line with estimates during the second-quarter and industrial production topped forecasts.

In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI rising 0.7% to $77.50 a barrel. Spot gold rises $9 to around $2,457/oz. Iron ore falls 1.4%.

Looking at today’s busy calendar, the US data slate includes August Empire manufacturing, July retail sales, August Philadelphia Fed business outlook, initial jobless claims, July import/export price indexes (8:30am), industrial production (9:15am), June business inventories, August NAHB housing market index (10am) and June TIC flows (4pm). Fed speakers scheduled for the session include Musalem (9:10am) and Harker (1:10pm)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,478.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 505.04
MXAP little changed at 179.07
MXAPJ down 0.1% to 558.27
Nikkei up 0.8% to 36,726.64
Topix up 0.7% to 2,600.75
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,109.14
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,877.36
Sensex up 0.2% to 79,105.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,865.52
Kospi up 0.9% to 2,644.50
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.20%
Euro little changed at $1.1007
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $80.00/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,456.27
US Dollar Index little changed at 102.63

Top Overnight News

Fed’s Bostic (voter) is open to a September rate cut as inflation cools and said as price pressures ease officials also need to be conscious of their mandate of maintaining full employment, while he added the labour market is weakening but is not weak: FT.
China’s economic malaise extended into the third quarter, drawing renewed attention to the need for more fiscal stimulus as domestic demand falters under a prolonged housing downturn.
Euro-zone productivity barely improved in the second quarter and again missed the European Central Bank’s expectations – a blow for its efforts to bring inflation back to 2%.
Japan’s economy rebounded to growth in the second quarter on the back of an increase in private consumption, in a sign that a virtuous cycle long sought by the central bank linking rising incomes to increased spending may be starting to emerge.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks shrugged off the mixed lead from the US and gained as participants digested a slew of key data. ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped as participants digested earnings releases and jobs data. Nikkei 225 was among the biggest gainers after GDP data topped forecasts and showed a return to growth. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gradually advanced in the aftermath of mixed Chinese activity data in which industrial production disappointed but retail sales topped forecasts, while Chinese indices were also unfazed by the steeper contraction in home prices. Furthermore, the PBoC delayed its MLF operation to later in the month but announced a firm liquidity injection via 7-day reverse repos which is meant to counteract maturing MLF loans, tax payments and government bond issuance.

Top Asian News

PBoC announced it will conduct its MLF operation on August 26th and injected CNY 577.7bln via 7-day reverse repos, while it added that the reverse repo operation today is meant to counteract maturing MLF loans, tax payments and government bond issuances.
China’s stats bureau said China’s economic operation was generally stable in July but noted a rising negative impact from changes to China’s external environment, while it stated the economic recovery trend needs to be consolidated and expects the recovery in consumption to consolidate as policies gain traction. Furthermore, it said domestic demand is likely to improve due to policy support and Chinese foreign trade remains resilient despite rising protectionism.
RBNZ Governor Orr addressed a parliamentary committee in which he stated that CPI is returning sustainably to the target band of 1%-3% and the current economic environment is weak with the economy weaker than anticipated six months ago. Orr added there is no talk on the committee of raising rates again and policy discussions in the future will focus on whether to maintain or reduce rates, as well as noted that they are to proceed with caution in adjusting interest rates and that removing restraint is appropriate for now.
China’s Commerce Ministry is to impose export controls on antimony (semi-metal) and other metals from 15th September.
Earthquake in Taiwan reported to be magnitude 5.7 (vs prelim 4.7), striking off Taiwan’s North-eastern Coast, according to Central Weather Bureau.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) are modestly firmer across the board. Price action today has generally been rangebound, but some modest pressure has entered the complex in recent trade. European sectors hold a positive tilt; Healthcare takes the top spot, propped up by AstraZeneca (+0.9%). Insurance is also found near the top after Admiral (+7.3%) reported strong results. Travel & Leisure is at the foot of the pile. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY -0.1%) are mixed, with very slight outperformance in the NQ, ahead of a packed schedule including jobless claims, retail sales and Fed speak.

Top European News

Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected, reiterates “policy rate will likely be kept at the current level for some time ahead”. Click for full details
Norges Bank Governor notes of a “very high” threshold for Norges Bank to intervene in FX to support the NOK; adds a floating NOK is an advantage; no new prognosis on when the first rate cut will come. Not targeting a particular NOK level. Norges cares about the NOK due to its effects on inflation. Norges has information since the last rate meeting, but information pulling the bank in different directions. No new prognosis on when the first rate cut will come. Regarding debate on pegging NOK to EUR, says the Bank follows the mandate given.

FX

DXY is steady and holding above 102.50 with the USD seeing a mixed performance vs. peers, ahead of key US data and Fed speak. A dovish batch of metrics could see DXY revisit the August 5th multi-month low at 102.16.
EUR/USD is just about holding onto a 1.10 handle after pulling back from yesterday’s YTD peak at 1.1047.
GBP is one of the better performers across the majors after Q2 GDP metrics underpinned the view that the UK economy saw a solid H1. Cable has climbed from a 1.2820 low to a 1.2843 high but is yet to challenge Wednesday’s 1.2868 best.
USD/JPY remains within its recent 146-148 band as the recent impact of carry trade unwinding continues to recede.
AUD leading the majors vs. the USD following strong jobs data overnight which was driven by full-time employment. AUD/USD as high as 0.6627 and back above its 200DMA at 0.6600.
NOK experienced little follow-through from the Norges Bank’s decision to stand pat on rates as expected and reiterate guidance.

Fixed Income

USTs are lower, but only modestly so, into a packed data docket. Headlined by Retail Sales while the weekly jobless claims data will draw particular focus as participants increase their focus on the jobs-side of the Fed’s dual mandate. USTs at a 113-18 base which is comfortably above the last two session’s 113-13+ and 113-02+ lows.
Gilts are softer, and lagging slightly, after the morning’s GDP data for June/Q2. However, the release itself is perhaps not the driver behind the pressure, but more-so in a catch up play to the lows seen in APAC trade for USTs & Bunds.
Bund benchmarks are in the red, with specific drivers and macro newsflow generally on the lighter side. Currently, Bunds at the low-end of 134.76-135.07 parameters.

Commodities

Modest upward bias across crude contracts as broader market sentiment remains modestly positive and with geopolitics continuing to brew in the background as markets await the Iranian/Lebanese retaliation against Israel, with ceasefire talks due to continue in Doha (Qatar) today. Brent Oct trades in a USD 79.61-80.30/bbl parameter.
Precious metals are firmer across the board to varying degrees despite an uneventful Dollar but against the backdrop of heightened geopolitics as Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks resume with low optimism whilst Ukraine makes ground in Russian territory. Spot gold trades in a contained USD 2,446.64-2,458.89/oz range.
Base metals are seeing modest gains in fitting with the cautious but mildly positive sentiment across equities.

Geopolitics: Middle East

US Secretary of State Blinken and Qatar’s PM warned all sides not to undermine Gaza ceasefire talks set to open in the Gulf nation, in a veiled warning to Iran, Hamas and Israel, according to Al Arabiya.
US sources told Axios that former President Trump spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu on Wednesday and encouraged Netanyahu to accept the deal to free hostages and for a ceasefire in Gaza.
IRGC-linked hacking group APT42 has been targeting personal accounts of individuals connected to President Biden, VP Harris, and former President Trump, including current and former government officials, as well as those involved with their campaigns, according to Iran International citing Google.
Hamas told mediators it was ready to meet them after today’s talks “if there are developments or a serious response from Israel”, via Sky News Arabia.
“The Israeli delegation for the hostage deal talks has left Israel towards Doha”, via Kann’s Stein citing ItayBlumental.

Geopolitics: Other

Russia conducted a missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa which targeted port infrastructure and injured one person, according to Reuters citing the regional governor.
South Korean President Yoon laid out the blueprint for establishing a unified Korea and said the freedoms enjoyed in the South must be extended ‘to the frozen kingdom of the North’. Yoon said they will create a North Korean human rights fund to support activists and offered to create a working-level consultation body with North Korea, while he added they are ready to begin political and economic cooperation if North Korea takes the initial step to denuclearise.

US Event Calendar

08:30: July Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
July Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
July Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
July Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.1%, prior 0.9%

08:30: July Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0%
July Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.6%
July Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
July Export Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.5%
July Export Price Index YoY, est. 0.1%, prior 0.7%

08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 233,000
Aug. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.88m

08:30: Aug. Empire Manufacturing, est. -6.0, prior -6.6
08:30: Aug. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 5.2, prior 13.9
09:15: July Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0.6%
July Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.3%, prior 0.4%
July Capacity Utilization, est. 78.5%, prior 78.8%

10:00: June Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
10:00: Aug. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 43, prior 42
16:00: June Total Net TIC Flows, prior $15.8b

Central Bank Speakers

09:10: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Policy
13:10: Fed’s Harker Gives Speech on Center at Philadelphia Fed