What Comes After A Soft Landing? More Slowing…

Authored by Torsten Sløk via ApolloAcademy.com,

Since the Fed started raising interest rates, the labor market has gradually softened. 

Specifically…

…employment growth has slowed…

…job openings have been trending lower…

…the share of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs has been declining…

…wage growth for job-switchers is declining…

…and average weekly hours worked are softening…

With the Fed keeping interest rates at these high levels for another nine months, it is unlikely that the lines in these charts will suddenly start moving sideways. 

The likely scenario is that the trends in these charts continue.

In short, more weakness in the economic data is coming as Fed hikes bite harder and harder on consumers and firms.

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